Light to moderate rains are expected over central Somalia—particularly in parts of Hiraan, Bakool, Mudug, and Nugaal—while northern and southern regions will remain largely dry and hot.
Review of Observed Weather and Experienced Impacts
Observed Rainfall Conditions
During the week from 7 to 13 October 2025, rainfall was observed across many parts of the country with moderate intensity in most parts of Somaliland. Very intense rains were recorded at Sheikh (174.0 mm) in Togdheer region (Graph 1), while the following individual stations recorded moderate rains above 50 mm: Las Anod (76.5 mm) in Sool region and Baligubadle (93.0 mm), Salaxley (73.0 mm), Dooxaguban (72.5 mm), Geed deeble (70.0 mm), and Hargeisa (54.0 mm) in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Light rains of above 30 mm were observed at the following individual stations: Buuhoodle (48.2 mm) in Togdheer region; Galdogob (32.3 mm) and Laan Madow (30.6 mm) in Mudug region; Cadaadley (42.0 mm) and Dararweyne (35.5 mm) in Waqooyi Galbeed region; Burao (39.0 mm) in Togdheer region and Erigavo (37.0 mm) in Sanaag region and Mataban (38.3 mm) in Hiraan region.
The following stations within the Shabelle River catchment received light to moderate rains: Mataban (38.3 mm), Belet weyne (18.0 mm), and Bulo Burte (7.8 mm) in Hiraan region; and Mahaday Weyn (5.5 mm) and Jowhar (5.0 mm) in Middle Shabelle region. Over the Juba River catchment, light rains were observed in Bualle (11.5 mm) in Middle Juba region and Luuq (10.2 mm) and Bardheere (5.0 mm) in Gedo region.
Observed River Levels
Following the light rains over some parts of the Juba River catchment within Somalia, the levels have been generally steady with a very slight rise in the last week. Despite the light rains over the Shabelle River catchments within Somalia, there has been a slight drop in the levels. River levels along both the Juba and Shabelle Rivers are well below flood risk levels.
Experienced Impacts
While last week’s light to moderate rain is expected to have provided some relief, residual water and food security challenges associated with the prevalent drought have been reported by community feedback based on Radio Ergo weekly reports. According to weekly (2 to 8 October 2025) report, widespread drought and extreme heat across the north and central Somalia caused acute water and food shortages, livestock deaths, and growing hardship. Additionally, IDPs reported severe hunger and poor living conditions. Environmental pollution and livestock diseases also emerged as concerns.
