Key Messages
In September — the peak of the pastoral lean season — food security is deteriorating across most parts of northern and central Somalia. Deterioration is expected to continue through January 2026, driven by the cumulative impacts of successive below-average rainfall seasons (2024-2025), an atypically dry xagaa season, and forecasted below-average October-December deyr rains. The 2026 jilaal dry season, beginning in January, is anticipated to be atypically hot and dry and is likely to further deplete pasture and water resources. In southern agropastoral regions of Bay and Bakool, where households are highly dependent on crop production, favorable gu harvests are supporting food consumption; however, anticipated poor 2025 deyr rainfall and limited livestock recovery prospects are likely to constrain food access. The anticipated below-average deyr, high unemployment, and localized persistent conflict are likely to increase humanitarian food assistance needs, particularly across central and northern regions and within settlements for internally displaced persons (IDPs).
The July–September 2025 xagaa season, which includes both the June-August xagaa rains in the south and the July-September xagaa dry season in central and northern areas, resulted in mixed agroclimatic conditions across Somalia. Most typical xagaa rainfall-receiving locations in southern coastal areas and adjacent areas of Shabelle and Juba regions experienced significant rainfall deficits and poor spatiotemporal distribution. Meanwhile, the xagaa dry season in central and northern regions was atypically hot, dry, and windy.
In southern agropastoral and riverine areas, the poor xagaa rains impacted off-season crop and livestock production. In rainfed and irrigated areas, insufficient soil moisture drove reduced off-season harvests. In riverine areas, declining Juba and Shabelle river levels also constrained recessional cultivation, reducing the gu off-season harvest to an estimated 4,830 metric tons (MT) — about 40 percent of the projected 12,080 MT and roughly half the five-year average — limiting food availability and agricultural labor opportunities. Pasture deterioration also weakened livestock body conditions and milk productivity. Despite favorable gu main harvests, poor households have only two to three months of grain stocks (compared to the typical three to four) after selling over half their own production to repay debts from previous droughts. As a result, most cropping households will be market dependent by October/November. In September, agricultural labor income increased slightly with the start of deyr season activities and is expected to increase again in December 2025 and January 2026 with the deyr harvest.
In northwestern agropastoral regions, the July-September karan rains performed well through September despite a delayed start, supporting crop growth and pasture regeneration. Most planting occurred a month late, but white sorghum planted in the Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone is progressing from vegetative to early reproductive stages, with yields expected to exceed earlier projections. The November harvest is expected to be better than originally anticipated, albeit still below average, as most crops will likely fail to mature before the cold season starts in October and pests and cold weather may reduce final yields. Nonetheless, household food and income access are expected to improve slightly after the harvest. Medium calving rates have improved milk availability for consumption and sale, and the improved vegetation conditions following the karan rains have also supported medium livestockconception in September.
In northern and central pastoral livelihood zones, the below-average gu rains and an atypically dry xagaa season have slowed rangeland and livestock recovery following previous years of drought. Conditions are particularly poor in areas that have experienced two or more consecutive seasons of below-average rainfall, including Coastal Deeh, Addun, Northern Inland Pastoral, East Golis, and Guban Pastoral livelihood zones. Scarce pasture and water have triggered widespread atypical livestock movements, increasing competition and conflict over limited pasture. The forecasted below-average deyr rainfall is expected to further reduce livestock production, leading to increased culling of offspring and rising drought-related livestock deaths from disease and starvation when the jilaal dry season begins in January. Acute food insecurity is likely to worsen across northern and central pastoral areas, driven by the combination of declining income from livestock and related product sales, high household debt, and elevated food prices, resulting in low purchasing capacity.
IDPs in Somalia continue to face high levels of acute food insecurity, driven by a convergence of protracted conflict, escalating violence in central regions, and the harsh impacts of the recent xagaa dry season after multiple droughts. High food prices, compounded by reduced income from labor and self-employment, have eroded purchasing power among displaced households, many of whom lack access to stable livelihoods. The ongoing conflict, particularly in southern and central regions, has periodically reduced access to agricultural labor opportunities, markets and trade, and restricted humanitarian access. Meanwhile, humanitarian assistance has been scaled down due to funding shortfalls, leaving millions without adequate support. As the forecasted below-average deyr season approaches, labor opportunities will likely be below-average, and food insecurity among IDPs is expected to worsen, necessitating targeted humanitarian interventions.
Humanitarian assistance needs remain high despite continued funding cuts. As of early September, the Humanitarian Needs Response Plan is only 19.8 percent funded, prompting cutbacks and reduced food assistance, as well as reduced Outpatient Therapeutic Programs and Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program sites (down 775 to 629, and 617 to 300, respectively). According to the Food Security Cluster, in August, humanitarian food assistance reached 1.29 million people. From August to October, an average of 1.3 million people will be targeted monthly, covering an estimated 28 percent of households in need of food assistance, and down from the original target of 4.6 million beneficiaries. Funding constraints will reduce coverage to 375,000 people per month in November and December, reaching only 9 percent of those in need of food assistance.
